Dynamic Cash Flow Management Under Uncertainty: Integrating Scenario Planning and Advanced Analytical Tools

Alireza Mohammadi

doi:10.63053/ijmea.32

Authors

Alireza Mohammadi Finance and Investment Dpt., Oil Industries Engineering and Construction (OIEC group), Tehran, Iran

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.63053/ijmea.32

Keywords:

CashFlow Management, Artificial Intelligence, Scenario Planning, Predictive Analytics

Abstract

Effective cash flow management is essential for ensuring financial stability and operational success in dynamic and uncertain environments. Traditional methods often fall short in addressing the complexities posed by volatile markets and unforeseen economic shifts. This paper explores the integration of advanced AI-based analytical tools, scenario planning, and predictive modeling to enhance cash flow optimization. By focusing on iterative processes of analysis, forecasting, and decision-making, the study provides a comprehensive framework for leveraging innovative technologies such as real-time monitoring systems, machine learning algorithms, and probabilistic simulations. Through the case study of the Kian Petrochemical project, the research highlights the transformative impact of these tools in achieving proactive financial management and mitigating risks. This paper contributes to bridging theoretical principles with practical applications, paving the way for more resilient financial systems capable of navigating modern economic uncertainties.

References

Abbasov, С. (2021). Improving Cash Flow Management. ЕКОНОМІЧНИЙ ВІСНИК ДОНБАСУ(4 (66)), 33–38-33–38.

Athia, I., Sudarmiatin, S., & Hermawan, A. (2023). Management of CashFlow Practices in Micro Enterprises: Perspectives from Women-Owned SMEs. International Journal Of Humanities Education and Social Sciences, 2(6).

Dorrah, D. H., & McCabe, B. (2023). Integrated Agent-Based Simulation and Game Theory Decision Support Framework for Cash Flow and Payment Management in Construction Projects. Sustainability, 16(1), 244.

Dvořáková, L., Kronych, J., & Malá, A. (2018). Cash flow management as a tool for corporate processes optimization. Smart Science, 6(4), 330-336.

Gaspars-Wieloch, H. (2019). Project net present value estimation under uncertainty. Central European Journal of Operations Research, 27(1), 179-197.

Hou, Q. (2024). Financial Calculation Problems and Countermeasure Analysis of Large-Scale Engineering Construction Projects. Proceedings of Business and Economic Studies, 7(2), 15-21.

Huang, Y., Gao, Y., Gan, Y., & Ye, M. (2021). A new financial data forecasting model using genetic algorithm and long short-term memory network. Neurocomputing, 425, 207-218.

Ievsieieva, O., Kolisnyk, M., Yatsenko, O., Chornovol, A., & Bocharova, N. (2024). Financial Modeling and Forecasting in Corporate Finance Management. Economic Affairs, 69(1), 629-646.

Iskandar, I., Willett, R., & Xu, S. (2018). The development of a government cash forecasting model. Journal of Public Budgeting, Accounting & Financial Management, 30(4), 368-383.

Koopman, K., & Cumberlege, R. (2021). Cash flow management by contractors. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science,

Kumar, P., & Walia, E. (2006). Cash Forecasting: An Application of Artificial Neural Networks in Finance. Int. J. Comput. Sci. Appl., 3(1), 61-77.

Le, H. T. T., & Cong, T. D. (2023). BIM-INTEGRATED SYSTEM: A SUCCESSFUL ALTERNATIVE FOR ESTIMATING CASH FLOW IN BUILDING PROJECTS. ASEAN Engineering Journal, 13(4), 103-112.

Lin, S.-L., & Huang, H.-W. (2020). Improving deep learning for forecasting accuracy in financial data. Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, 2020(1), 5803407.

Marchau, V. A., Walker, W. E., Bloemen, P. J., & Popper, S. W. (2019). Decision making under deep uncertainty: from theory to practice. Springer Nature.

Ongpeng, J. M. C., Aviso, K. B., Foo, D. C., & Tan, R. R. (2019). Graphical pinch analysis approach to cash flow management in engineering project. Chemical Engineering Transactions, 76.

Oriekhova, К., & Golovko, О. (2022). Cash flow management strategy. Economics and Law, 64(1), 89-97.

Przychocka, I., Sikorski, M., & Milewski, L. (2024). Cash flow management in small and medium enterprises in times of economic uncertainty.

Qu, J. (2020). Uncertainty of cash flow and corporate innovation. Modern Economy, 11(04), 881.

Raheem, M. N., & Adrees, M. (2021). The Effect of Risk and Uncertainty Factors on Managerial Decision Making. Journal of Education and Vocational Research, 12(1 (V)), 30-37.

Salas-Molina, F. (2019). Fitting random cash management models to data. Computers & Operations Research, 106, 298-306.

Shash, A. A., & Qarra, A. A. (2018). Cash flow management of construction projects in Saudi Arabia. Project Management Journal, 49(5), 48-63.

Storonyanska, I., & Benovska, L. Y. (2022). Povedinkovi faktory u pryynyatti finansovo-ekonomichnykh rishenʹ subʺyektamy ekonomiky v umovakh nevyznachenosti [Behavioral factors in making financial and economic decisions by subjects of the economy in conditions of uncertainty]. Finansy Ukrayiny–Finances of Ukraine, 6, 112-128.

Tabei, S. M. A., Bagherpour, M., & Mahmoudi, A. (2019). Application of fuzzy modelling to predict construction projects cash flow. Periodica Polytechnica Civil Engineering, 63(2), 647-659.

Tanklevska. (2023). THEORETICAL FOUNDATIONS OF ENTERPRISE CASH FLOW MANAGEMENT. Економічний вісник Причорномор'я(4).

Zhuravlova, I. (2024). UNCERTAINTY IN THE CONTEXT OF FORMING FINANCIAL STRATEGY. Scientific notes of Taurida National V. I. Vernadsky University series «Economy and Management, 74(3), 8. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.32782/2523-4803/74-3-8