The Nexus of Renewable Energy, Economic Growth, and Pollution in Afghanistan

Abstract

Afghanistan, a country with significant environmental challenges and an urgent need for sustainable energy solutions, has seen limited empirical investigation into the impact of renewable energy and economic growth on environmental pollution. Despite the global push for cleaner energy transitions, little is known about how renewable energy use influences CO₂ emissions in the Afghan context, especially in the presence of rising economic activities. This study aims to fill that gap by examining the relationship between renewable energy consumption, economic growth, and environmental pollution in Afghanistan from 1992 to 2022. The primary objective is to determine whether renewable energy can help reduce environmental degradation without hindering economic development. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach, the analysis assesses both short-run and long-run dynamics among the variables. The results show that renewable energy has a clear and significant impact on reducing CO₂ emissions in the long term, such that a one-unit increase in the use of renewable energy leads to a 0.2025 unit reduction in Co₂ emissions, and GDP has a small positive effect on environmental improvement, which is not statistically significant. Diagnostic tests confirm the model's robustness and reliability, including the absence of serial correlation and heteroskedasticity. These findings imply that Afghanistan can benefit environmentally by investing in and expanding its renewable energy sector, particularly solar and hydro power. Such a transition could support sustainable economic growth while addressing the country's vulnerability to climate change. Policymakers are encouraged to adopt green energy strategies and create incentives for renewable energy development to promote long-term environmental and economic resilience.